The formbook model describes each match based on information available prior to the beginning of the match. If the two playing elevens, venue and date of a match are known, then the game can be described in terms of the batting, bowling and team strengths of the two teams and an expected win percentage for each team. In the example of the Test match below the batting and bowling strengths are given in runs per wicket (for ODI and Tests it is given in terms of runs per 300 balls and runs per 120 balls respectively), as is the overall team strength. The win expectation for each team is a percentage. Experience refers to the median biased experience of each eleven.
Formbook Expectation for India v Australia, Eden Gardens, March 11-15, 2001
The basic record used for each individual match performance of each of the 22 players involved includes (date, ground, team, opponent, host country, inns, runs, dismissals, balls faced, balls bowled, runs conceded, wickets taken). The inns signifies whether or not the player's team batted first or second. The basic list of all individual match records for all previous games for each player involved in the match being simulated is collected. This record is biased according to the team, opponent, batting/bowling decision and host country. Games against the current opponent at the current venue or in the current host country are repeated. These biased records are then used in a monte carlo simulation to estimate the distribution of likely results.
FORMBOOK SIMULATION: TESTS
The chart above shows the results of the simulation on 2320 Tests. For each test, each team is assigned an expected win percentage by the model. The actual win percentage (vertical axis) is the actual percentage of winning teams for all the teams assigned a particular win percentage by the model. The grey bars give the distribution of teams by expected win percentage. The chart below shows the same simulation of 58199 first class matches.
FORMBOOK SIMULATION: FIRST CLASS MATCHES
FORMBOOK SIMULATION: ODIs
FORMBOOK SIMULATION: T20s